Updated Quarterly NGDP Forecasts and NGDP Output Gaps

Based on S&P 500 earnings estimates and futures prices.

Note: NGDP forecasts are based on the assumption of a 4.6% sustainable NGDP growth rate. That same assumption informs the Expected NGDP Growth Rate Gap (Potential Est.). The new “raw” output rate gap measure excludes any estimate of potential sustainable NGDP growth.

Data Sources:

1. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.quotes.html#venue=globex

2. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx